Iron ore futures an accurate guide
Investing
Guide at Deep Blue Group Publications LLC - Fledgling
Chinese iron ore futures traded by speculators and small-time industry players
are giving accurate predictions of moves in the iron ore spot price, which has
become increasingly important to the health of Australia’s biggest miners and
national export revenue.
Analysis
by the The Australian shows price moves in the five-month-old Dalian
Commodities Exchange iron ore futures price have become highly correlated to
the overnight moves in the spot price, which Platts puts out well after market
using private information from hundreds of physical iron
ore traders.
The
relationship was starkly illustrated when, overnight on March 10, the iron ore
price had its biggest fall in years.
That
day, before the price fall was announced, Dalian futures traders -- obviously
plugged into physical price moves yet to be revealed to the market -- sold off
hard.
The
Dalian move contributed to a $16 billion rout on the Australian Stock Exchange,
despite the official extent of the iron ore spot price move not being known.
The
futures gave a real-time indication of the big fall coming in the benchmark
iron ore price index well before the index price was printed at the end of the
Asian trading day.
The
iron ore price is becoming a more important factor for mining stocks such as
BHP Billiton, Rio Tinto and Fortescue Metals Group, completing huge expansions
in Western Australia.
The
expansions mean iron ore is now easily Australia’s biggest export, so the price
moves can have a big impact on royalties and taxes.
IG
Markets chief market strategist Chris Weston said the futures became a valuable
source of trading information on March 10, when BHP, Rio and Fortescue were
sold off.
“I’m not surprised the correlation is
high,” Mr Weston said.
“Dalian futures are a good barometer
of overnight direction. However, the moves can be much more pronounced than
those of the spot price.”
Correlation
analysis shows the most-traded Dalian iron ore futures contract this month and
Platts’ The Steel Index iron ore price had a correlation coefficient of 0.82 --
which in statistical terms makes them highly correlated (a coefficient of 1
means they always move in unison).
Iron
ore pricing has been rapidly evolving in the past five years since former BHP
chief Marius Kloppers engineered a move away from a 40-year-old system of
annually negotiating prices to one based on spot market trades.
The
big miners now sell most of their iron ore based on movements in a spot price
index while futures and swap contracts have sprung up on various exchanges.
Of
the exchange-traded iron ore derivatives, it is the yuan-priced, 100-tonne
Dalian futures contract -- the only physically settled futures in the world --
now creating the most waves.
Volumes
of the futures, which only started trading in October, surged this month as
iron ore prices began sliding, with speculators and smaller commercial players
attracted by increased price volatility.
On
March 24, a record 1.3 million of the most-traded contract (iron ore for
September delivery) changed hands, which is more than a fourfold increase on
the pre-March record.
The
exchange, in the port city of Dalian, had another breakthrough this month when
the first futures contract was physically settled.
To
do so, a trading company delivered 10,000 tonnes of Australian iron ore, at the
contract’s specified grade of 61.9 per cent, to a steel company at the port of
Lianyungang Australia’s big iron ore miners and the big Chinese steel mills are
not trading on the exchange and the ability of the futures to move iron ore
prices has been limited to its effect on market sentiment among traders. The
benchmark iron ore price compiled by The Steel Index is arrived at after the
Chinese trading day (and well after Australian markets close).
Physical
settlement through the actual delivery of iron ore will be a rare occurrence,
where a contract to buy can be cancelled by a market purchase of a contract to
sell.
But
the option of settlement ensures futures prices do not stray too far from
physical prices.
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